Don't be surprised if Halladay winds up winning the Cy Young

I've been flip flopping left and right on the NL Cy Young award ever since it became clear in April that there were going to be a LOT of contenders.

For most of the year it looked like Ubaldo Jimenez's to lose.

Then Josh Johnson looked like the front runner and more recently I've been leaning towards Adam Wainwright.

But when the dust settles, and if the Phillies continue their huge comeback, it could very well be Roy Halladays. And yesterday's performance convinces me he might be the guy.

"BUT WAIT!" Say all the stats people. "He let up 5 runs today! He didn't have his best stuff yesterday! Yesterday was a subpar performance!"

Yes, I know that... and he still pitched well enough to win, take pressure off of the bullpen and keep the Phillies winning ways alive, taking the series from the Mets.

While a lot of stats people think baseball is played in a vacuum and things like "run support" and "winning the game" are irrelevant, I think it shows something from your ace when they don't have their best stuff and can hold on to win anyway.

I know that makes me irrelevant, but I have a feeling the team was grateful and the bullpen was happy.

Yeah, his run total was high, but he gave them 7 innings, struck out 10 and walked 1. (Isn't strike outs to walks a coveted stat?)

His WHIP is 4th in the NL.

For those who value wins (remember, the point of the game?) he has the third highest total behind Jimenez and Wainwright.

For those who like strikeouts, he has the most in the NL.

Nobody has pitched more innings in all of baseball (he should pass 200 innings before Labor Day.)

Nobody has completed more games or thrown more shutouts in all of baseball.

And oh yeah... since they hit rock bottom and were on the verge of being a .500 team in late July... he's gone 4-0, averaging more than 7 2/3 a start and a 2.03 ERA (and that includes the 5 runs today). He's also striking out better than 1 an inning. And he's winning games the Phillies NEED as they will probably make up a 7 game deficit and in all likely hood he'll be the ace of the Division Champion.

Not that those sort of things matter any more.

It's ANYONE'S Division to win but Wainwright's Cy Young to lose

I am sure this is not how Brandon Phillips saw this series unfold... The Reds went from 2 up to 1 back... and Cincinnati has 47 games to get back on track.

If they don't they can look squarely at this weekend as a big time lost opportunity... when they showed they couldn't play with the big boys.

The Reds are part of my "Less Than Magnificent Seven"... the seven teams that went from 2000 to 2009 without making the post season once.

They can get off the schnide with a division title in a month and a half... and the lead in the NL Central hasn't been more than 2 games since May 9th with the exception of one day where the Reds opened up a 3 game lead.

In other words, a tradition filled midwestern team that has a lot of red in their uniform will be playing in October this year... your guess is as good as mine as which one.

But despite Ubaldo Jimene's solid performance last night in New York, Adam Wainwright at this point has to be the Cy Young winner.

He came up big in today's big game that put the Cardinals in first by themselves.

He's matched Jimenez's 17 wins... his ERA has joined Josh Johnson as sub 2.00. Wainwright's 1.99 ERA trailed Johnson's league leading ERA by 0.02 points.

His 0.97 WHIP is the lowest in the league.

His 176 1/3 innings pitched is second only to Roy Halladay. His batting average against is third in the league.

It's an amazing year for aces, and a strong August and September could put Jimenez, Johnson, Halladay and even Lincecum into the winner's circle.

But right now, it needs to be wrestled from Wainwright.

Is THAT anyway to try and win a Cy Young Award?

Seriously, Josh Johnson... it wasn't that long ago that you were a trendy Cy Young front runner choice. And going into today's game against a recently swept Reds team, you had a 1.97 ERA, best among big league starters.

But with Adam Wainwright on your tail in the ERA lead, it was critical to post a good win against Cincy.

3 2/3 innings, 10 hits and 6 earned runs later, your ERA is all the way up to 2.27, giving Wainwright the league lead in wins, ERA and WHIP.

Now Johnson is only a trendy pick for the Cy Young in the Johnson household.

In fact, Braves star Tim Hudson may have leap frogged Johnson among Cy Young contenders.

Dust yourself off Josh and get back in it... the most intriguing Cy Young race I have ever seen continues.

Could this be the most intriguing Cy Young race ever?

Every time I think someone has taken control of the race and made it their own... another stud makes themselves heard.

Just yesterday I was all but declaring Adam Wainwright the winner... but today Roy Halladay declared "NOT SO FAST!"

He won his 15th game and threw 8 shutout innings (and walked NOBODY).

He leads the league in strikeouts, innings pitched and complete games. And today's game was a must win to stop the bleeding doozy.

So it could be Halladay... but Jimenez pitches tomorrow, as does Lincecum in a critical inter division game.

We've had tight years for Cy Young voting before, but most of the time it was either because there was NO dominant candidate or it was down to two solid pitchers (like Maddux and Glavine in 1992.)

But this year, between Jimenez, Wainwright, Halladay, Johnson and maybe even Tim Hudson and Lincecum there are more aces than we can measure.

It comes down to the last month and a half.

They have my attention.

There will be a new Cy Young winner in the National League

I've been writing a lot about the 2010 National League Cy Young race. I started writing in April when it became clear this was going to be a special year, pitching wise.

I wrote about it as recently as yesterday and I will probably be writing about it through the end of the season.

And I've always mentioned Tim Lincecum in the conversation out of respect for the two time defending Cy Young winner and also because I knew he was always a dominant month from reclaiming the lead.

Well, I don't think it is happening. Not after today. The stats don't match up with Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson or Ubaldo Jimenez (who was robbed of win #18 today.)

And the Giants needed him. They were 2-8 against the Padres for the season, but after yesterday's come from behind thriller, the Giants were on the verge of winning a critical series, pulling to with 1 1/2 games and serving notice that they are as formidable as any team in the National League.

Instead he got thumped. The Giants have only won 2 of 11 games against the Padres.
Can you imagine if the Giants were merely mediocre against the Padres?

Let's say they were 5-6 instead of 2-9. Still allowing a losing record to San Diego.

If that were the case, the Giants would be 70-49... the best record in the National League.
The Padres would be 66-50, 2 1/2 back, 1 in the loss column.

Instead the Giants are 5 back in the loss column and have the Phillies only one back in the loss column for the Wild Card.

A win would have been big today, but Lincecum didn't come up big.

A few years ago, Brandon Webb looked like a lock to win his second Cy Young Award. But a pair of terrible starts against the Dodgers that helped knock Arizona out of the pennant race cost him dearly.

The pitcher who won in his place?
Tim Lincecum.

It comes full circle.

Adam Wainwright just couldn't make this easy, could he?

Adam Wainwright went into tonight's game as the only starting pitcher with qualifying innings to have a sub 2.00 ERA. He was tied with the league lead in wins with 17 and had the lowest WHIP and the second lowest bating average against.

And he did all of that with the fourth highest innings count in the National League.

Well after tonight, he has the second highest win total and still leads the league in all the above categories. And he pitched well... well enough to win 9 out of 10 games.

But his ERA crept above 2 and his win total is stagnant. And Halladay, Jimenez and yes Tim Hudson are still hanging around.

Oh yeah, Josh Johnson won again.

This isn't ending any time soon.

Taking stock of the first 1/2 of the season

Back on May 31st, I took a look at the approximate 1/3 point of the season... took a look at who the playoff teams were and the front runners for the post season awards and a few other observations.

It seems like the 1/3 point of the season is absurdly early to evaluate how teams will pan out... but looking over what I wrote, a lot of the same names are the same.

It is interesting that Edwin Jackson was in the running for Biggest Bust in the NL... and when the year is over he very well might be a bust. But he added a no hitter to his resume.

So let's look at where we stand as we are about to embark in the second half of the 2010 season and compare them to the results at the 1/3 mark.

If the playoffs started today...

AL East Champion New York Yankees
Would have home field advantage over
AL Central Champion White Sox

AL West Champion Texas Rangers
Would have home field advantage over
AL Wild Card Tampa Bay Rays

(The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers would be within 3 games of a playoff spot.)

NL East Champion Atlanta Braves
Would have home field advantage over the Winner of a
Wild Card Tie Breaker Between
Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers

NL West Champion San Diego Padres
Would have home field advantage over
NL Central Champion Cincinnati Reds

(At the 1/3 Mark, The Rays had home field over Oakland, the Twins had home field over the Yankees. The Cardinals had home field over the Braves while the Padres still had home field over the Reds)

AL MVP:
JOSH HAMILTON, Rangers
The batting and hits leader is also in the top 4 of OPS, slugging, RBI and home runs. He is a potential triple crown threat.

In the running:
MIGUEL CABRERA, Tigers. JUSTIN MORNEAU, Twins. ROBINSON CANO, Yankees. KEVIN YOUKILIS, Red Sox.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Miguel Cabrera as the MVP.)

NL MVP:
JOEY VOTTO, Reds
The top OPS and home run man in the league, he is also among the league leaders in RBI and is batting .314. Also has led the Reds to a surprising first place position. People know him now after his initial All Star snub.

In the running:
ALBERT PUJOLS, Cardinals. DAVID WRIGHT, Mets. ANDRE ETHIER, Dodgers. ADRIAN GONZALEZ, Padres. RAFAEL FURCAL, Dodgers.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Albert Pujols as the MVP.)

AL CY YOUNG:
DAVID PRICE, Rays
Leads the league in ERA and wins and has the Rays back on track for a trip to October.

In the running:
JON LESTER, Red Sox. CC SABATHIA, Yankees. CLIFF LEE, Mariners/Rangers. FELIX HERNANDEZ, Mariners.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jon Lester as the Cy Young.)

NL CY YOUNG:

UBALDO JIMENEZ, Rockies

Sure his numbers are not as superhuman as they were a few months ago. But his 15-1 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .198 BAA (second in the league) are all eye popping, especially when you consider where his home park is.

In the running:

JOSH JOHNSON, Marlins. ADAM WAINWRIGHT, Cardinals. ROY HALLADAY, Phillies. TIM LINCECUM, Giants.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Ubaldo Jimenez as the Cy Young.)

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
BRENNAN BOESCH, Tigers
Has helped the Tigers to be in or around first place with a .342 average, 12 homers and an OPS of .990.

In the running:

NEFTALI FELIZ, Rangers. AUSTIN JACKSON, Tigers. MITCH TALBOT, Indians. JOHN JASO, Blue Jays.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Mitch Talbot as the AL Rookie of the Year.)

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
JAMIE GARCIA, Cardinals
He has put up solid stats including an 8-4 record, a 2.10 ERA and will give the Cardinals about 200 innings when all is said and done.

In the running:
STEPHEN STRASBURG, Nationals. BUSTER POSEY, Giants. GABY SANCHEZ, Marlins. IKE DAVIS, Mets. JASON HEYWARD, Braves.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Jason Heyward as the Rookie of the Year.)

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
OZZIE GUILLEN, White Sox
The White Sox were 8 games under .500 and heading towards a lost season. Guillen stayed focused and next thing you know, the White Sox are in first at the All Star Break and has a pitching staff that can absorb the loss of Jake Peavy.

In the running:
RON WASHINGTON, Rangers. TERRY FRANCONA, Red Sox. JOE MADDON, Rays. JIM LEYLAND, Tigers. MIKE SCIOSCIA, Angels.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Joe Maddon as the Manager of the Year.)

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR:
DUSTY BAKER, Reds
The Reds were supposed to be also rans who were going to fade in June. Instead they are in first place at the All Star Break and just need to outpace St. Louis in a two team race.

In the running:
BOBBY COX, Braves. JIM TRACY, Rockies. BUD BLACK, Padres.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Dusty Baker as the Manager of the Year.)

AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

VLADIMIR GUERRERO, Rangers
Think the Angels could use his bat right around now? He's batting .319 with 20 homers and 75 RBI for you old school baseball followers. He's posting a .919 OPS for you new school kids. And is forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Josh Hamilton in Arlington.

In the running:
VERNON WELLS, Blue Jays. ALEX RIOS, White Sox. TY WIGGINTON, Orioles.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Vernon Wells as the Comeback Player of the Year.)

NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
TIM HUDSON, Braves
He spent most of 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery and having people wonder if the one time ace of the A's was done. Instead he became an All Star with a 9-4 record at the break, a 2.30 ERA and a 61/43 strikeout to walk ratio.

In the running:
SCOTT ROLEN, Reds. LIVAN HERNANDEZ, Nationals. CARLOS SILVA, Cubs. BARRY ZITO, Giants.

BIGGEST BUST IN THE AL:
MILTON BRADLEY, Mariners
When the Mariners brought in Cliff Lee to be a 1-2 punch for the pennant with King Felix, someone thought that Bradley would somehow be the center piece to the offense. He's been nothing short of a PR disaster, had to leave the team and his OPS is 1/3 lower than it was in 2008, his lone full season of note.

In the running:
JOSH BECKETT, Red Sox. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN, Yankees. CHONE FIGGINS, Mariners.

(At the 1/3 mark I had Josh Beckett as the biggest bust in the AL)

BIGGEST BUST IN THE NL
CARLOS ZAMBRANO, Cubs
The nominal ace of the Cubs had to get his head straight as a middle reliever. Then his dugout tirade made him suspended from the club. The Cubs would deal him for a flat can of Diet 7 Up.

In the running:
AKI IWAMURA, Pirates. ARAMIS RAMIREZ, Cubs. MARK DeROSA, Giants.


So let's start the second half up...
And I'll check in around Labor Day. Hopefully there will be more Red Sox in these categories (except Biggest Bust.)

Jimenez vs. Mauer ... YOU WOULDN'T WANT THAT Interleague Foes?

JUST as I finished typing my last entry about Jimenez pitching against the Twins, Joe Mauer came up to the plate.

The front runner of the 2010 National League Cy Young Award faced off against the defending American League MVP.

The crowd loved it... taking pictures of the match up.

It is PRECISELY the unorthodox head to head match ups that Interleague Play has in mind.

Mauer lined out in a bang bang play where the runner at first was doubled up.

Jimenez goes 8 strong with 1 run... ups his record to 13-1 and has a 1.15 ERA now. And Twin fans got to see on a beautiful June day a match up they wouldn't normally see.

Ohhhh. So bad for baseball!

Strasburg makes a run at Rookie of the Year

I've written a bunch about the NL Cy Young race this year. And while at this point Ubaldo Jimenez has the lead, if he stumbles, the likes of Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Mike Pelfrey and Barry Zito all look like they'll put up numbers that could have WON the Cy a few years ago.

The National League is filled with ace pitchers and they are also showing a great crop of rookie stars as well.

The NL Rookie of the Year race was already crowded.

Jason Heyward, Mike Leake, Ike Davis, David Freese and Jamie Garcia have all made big contributions to their contending teams.

And recently promoted Buster Posey and Mike Stanton both look like impact bats.

But HO-LEE COW!
Stephen Strasburg is somehow actually EXCEEDING expectations.

Forget that his 2 wins. His ERA is 1.86, he's throwing 7 innings a game.
He has 32 strikeouts and only 5 walks in 19 1/3 innings.

Now granted he has faced the Pirates, Indians and White Sox... so he hasn't exactly faced the best teams yet.

But what if he keeps this up?

He might not only win the Rookie of the Year, but he might be mentioned in the Cy Young race as well.

How good is Strasburg so far?

Obama had to go see him last night... even with all stuff going on in the world... and who can blame him?

Oh I am sure someone will.

Price wins... it's your move Lester

I've written a lot about the NL Cy Young race this year... but not too much about the American League

It hasn't been as sexy a race with the Jimenez's, Halladays, Wainwrights, Lincecums et al dominating.

Right now I'd say two of the front runners for the AL are David Price, who pitched Tampa to an easy win over Toronto last night and leads the AL in wins and ERA, and Jon Lester, the AL Pitcher of the Month in May (based on his 5-0 record in May with a 1.84 ERA) and has the lowest batting average against in the bigs. And since starting the season 0-2 with a 8.44 ERA over his first three starts he is 7-0 with 1.28 ERA.

He goes tonight.

Yeah I know Phil Hughes, Jeff Niemann, Andy Pettitte and Clay Buchholz are all candidates as well but Lester and Price can separate themselves from the pack.

Let's hope Lester gets no hitter #2.

Adam Wainwright... Cy Young front runner?

It seems like Ubaldo Jimenez has been the front runner for the Cy Young Award for so long that it almost seemed silly to look at other candidates.

And then suddenly we all looked up and Josh Johnson somehow passed him on the radar.

Well now it is looking more and more like Wainwright is the one to vote for.

Last night he threw another complete game shutout (he is second in the league for both complete games and shutouts to Roy Halladay)... which gives him 16 wins (second to Jimenez's 17 wins) an ERA of 2.07 (second to Josh Johnson's 1.96) a WHIP of 1.00 (second to Mat Latos's 0.99) in 169 innings pitched (second to Roy Halladay's 178).

(His 154 strikeouts puts him in third in the NL... it was almost so perfectly lined up.)

Being #2 in so many categories should put him #1 in the Cy Young vote... at least at this juncture.

Now a dominating August and September could put Jimenez back on top... or Johnson... or even Halladay.

Wainwright already has the ultimate team highlight... clinching the 2006 World Series. Now to snag the top individual achievement.

He's in second place so many times that he might have to be in first.